2021 Risks & Opportunities
With the borders between the State and Territories all but open and 2021 in sight, there is a hunger for a return to ‘normal’. The recent Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment articulates this desire to ‘get on with things’; sentiment reached its highest level since November 2013 and Christmas spending is expected to be consistent with previous years.
However, the Reserve Bank of Australia cautions that the recovery will be uneven and drawn out and GDP is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2021. The risks are not limited to the pandemic but Australia’s geopolitical relationships, notably with our largest trading partner, China.
Here’s our key risks and opportunities as we head into 2021:
Opportunities
Employers & job building
Reducing unemployment is a national priority. While the unemployment rate is expected to decline in 2021, further rises are expected as businesses restructure in response to the pandemic. Wage growth will also be subdued with excess capacity in the market.
New analysis from the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests one in five jobs were saved by JobKeeper. The November 2020 analysis states, “one in five employees who received JobKeeper (and, thus, remained employed) would not have remained employed during this period had it not been for the JobKeeper Payment. Given that 3½ million individuals were receiving the payment over the period from April to July 2020, this implies that JobKeeper reduced total employment losses by at least 700,000 over the same period.”
The number of businesses accessing JobKeeper reduced by around 450,000 in October 2020 with the transition to more stringent eligibility requirements. The shift now is to create jobs, not just keeping them. There are a number of incentives for employers to grow employment and skills:
· JobMaker - A 12 month “hiring credit” available for jobs created from 7 October 2020 until 6 October 2021 that provides a payment to employers of $200 per week for eligible new employees aged between 16 and 29, and $100 per week for eligible employees aged between 30 to 35 years. Eligibility restrictions apply to the business and the employee. Employees need to have been out of work and receiving Government support for at least one month within the three months before they were hired.
· Apprenticeship subsidies – subsidies of 50% of an apprentice’s wage (up to $7,000) are available for new and existing apprentices to keep them employed. The schemes apply to the wages of new apprentices from 5 October 2020 and 30 September 2021, and existing apprentices from 1 January 2020 to 31 March 2021. Eligibility requirements apply to the business and the apprentice.
In addition, subsidies are available for employers engaging apprentices in key industries with skills shortages including carpenters and joiners, plumbers, hairdressers, plasterers, bakers and pastrycooks, vehicle painters, wall and floor tilers, arborists, bricklayers and stonemasons and air-conditioning and refrigeration mechanics.
There is also additional support for adults reskilling and undertaking an apprenticeship and for apprentices with a disability.
See the full list of incentives here.
· State based incentives – Tax breaks to encourage employers to employ more workers are big right now. The Victorian government recently announced a New Jobs Tax Credit for SMEs of ten cents for every dollar of increased taxable Victorian wages. NSW has reduced payroll tax to 4.85% from 5.45% from 1 July 2020. There are also a myriad of incentives targeted to specific areas like the NSW regional growth fund. WA has an Employer Incentive Scheme with a base payment of $8,500 for employing apprentices. It’s worth seeing what is available in your region and in your industry.
Federal Government incentives generally do not overlap. That is, your business cannot receive incentives for JobKeeper and JobMaker, or JobMaker and an apprenticeship subsidy.