Global Economic Update

As of July 2022, the International Monetary Fund expects the global economy to grow by 3.2% in 2022 and 2.9% in 2023.

In this context, the following economic scorecards show how key economic data released during the quarter performed against expectations for the four largest economies in the world plus Australia.

United States

As of July 2022, the International Monetary Fund expects the United States economy to grow by 2.3% in 2022 and 1.0% in 2023

The economic scorecard for the United States was weak during the quarter. The outlook for the manufacturing sector deteriorated in May and June. The unemployment rate, while still at a low level, moved 0.1% higher to 3.6% in May. Retail sales and consumer confidence provided a mixed picture of the consumer, while the housing market continued to soften through April, May and June.

China

As of July 2022, the International Monetary Fund expects the Chinese economy to grow by 3.3% in 2022 and 4.6% in 2023.

The economic scorecard for China was broadly positive during  the quarter. The outlook for the manufacturing sector improved while both exports and imports also grew faster than expected.

Japan

As of July 2022, the International Monetary Fund expects the Japanese economy to grow by 1.7% in 2022 and 1.7% in 2023

The economic scorecard for Japan was broadly positive during the quarter. The outlook for the manufacturing  sector  improved  in  March,  April  and  June.  The  unemployment  rate  continued  to improve, falling to 2.6% in May. Retail sales improved in March and April while consumer confidence continued to flounder.

Germany

As of July 2022, the International Monetary Fund expects the German economy to grow by 1.2% in 2022 and 0.8% in 2023.

The  economic  scorecard  for  Germany  was  mixed  during  the  quarter.  The  outlook  for  the manufacturing sector slowed in April and June. The unemployment rate deteriorated slightly in June, increasing by 0.3% to 5.3% in June. Consumer confidence improved for the first time in a while in June, while economic sentiment and business climate improved in April and May.

Australia

As of July 2022, the International Monetary Fund expects the Australian economy to grow by 3.8% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023.

The economic scorecard for Australia was mixed during the quarter. The unemployment rate, while still at a low level, moved 0.1% higher to 3.9% in May. Retail sales and private sector credit continued to beat expectations during the quarter (despite weak consumer confidence in April, May and June), while building approvals started to slow in May and April.

Jessica Pike